Barkad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl – Rush
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years A Slave
Leto, Fassbender and, surprisingly, Abdi seem to be our definite in this category. With a surprising amount of support appearing for Rush, I would say Brühl’s nomination is pretty likely too. I’ve put Goodman on there because, call me optimistic, I think the fact that he starred in the last two Best Picture winners may work in his favour here. However, possible spoilers could well come from Jonah Hill in The Wolf Of Wall Street or Will Forte in Nebraska. Saving Mr Banks has had a much weaker showing than expected in most categories thus far, but if the Academy bucks this trend, we could well see Tom Hanks receiving his second nomination of the year here too.
This is Leto’s for the win. At this stage I’d say he’s the out and out favourite, though Fassbender is his main competition.
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Lupita N’yongo – 12 Years A Slave
Oprah Winfrey – The Butler
I’m pretty confident about this lineup. Winfrey’s snub at the Globes was a MASSIVE shock, but I’m confident the Academy will buckle to the Power of Oprah. Roberts may be the one to miss out here, so she could be replaced by surprise Globe nominee Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine, or even Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station. I’m pretty confident about this category however.
This should have been Oprah’s Oscar for definite. The Globe snub hasn’t helped, but I’m pretty confident she’ll still take it.
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years A Slave
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
I think it’s safe to safe that this is our final lineup. I would LOVE for Leonardo di Caprio to make the cut for The Wolf Of Wall Street, but I doubt it. A nomination for Joaquin Phoenix for Her would be pretty left-field too, but I think that film will make its showing elsewhere.
At this stage I’d say Dern will win this… But maybe Ejiofor if 12 Years A Slave does a sweep a la The Artist?
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr Banks
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Six months ago I would have said that this was Amy Adams’ year. Unfortunately American Hustle’s reviews focus more on Lawrence than Adams and the category is so strong this year that I think even her fifth nomination may now elude her. I think this category is sewn up. If Kate Winslet hadn’t already won her Oscar I’d be predicting a nomination for Labor Day for sure here, but I just don’t think there’s room for her. If Saving Mr Banks does fall completely from grace over the next month or so however, Thompson could well be the one we lose from this lineup and maybe we could even see an Amour-esque nomination for Palme d’Or winner Blue Is The Warmest Colour in Adèle Exarchopoulos, who has appeared on several critics’ lists already.
This is a two horse race for sure. Blanchett and Bullock will be neck and neck to the finish line, but I stand by my early prediction that Blanchett will take this.
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen – 12 Years A Slave
I think Russell might be the weak link here. While he has received two previous nominations for his last two films, American Hustle hasn’t been setting the critics alike in the way everyone expected it to. With The Wolf Of Wall Street a very late contender, Martin Scorsese may well get another nomination here. I’m sticking by Russell, but he could easily miss out. It could even be the Coens who get that fifth spot for Inside Llewyn Davis, though with Payne’s citation for a similarly low-key film, I think the nod will go to a film of a much grander scale.
This will be another two horse race. While part of me thinks McQueen will get it in a sweep across the board for his film, I do think the sheer technical achievement of Gravity will work in Cuaron’s favour. At this stage, I’m predicting Cuaron.
12 Years A Slave
Dallas Buyers Club
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf Of Wall Street
With the uncertainty of how many films will be nominated in this category (it could be anywhere between 5 and 10), it’s hard to make a final prediction. I’m confident that this category will consist of the above, though maybe one or two will miss out – possibly Her or Dallas Buyers Club? Possible substitutions may come from Philomena, Rush, August: Osage County or Saving Mr Banks, but I sincerely doubt it.
At this stage, I’m pretty confident that the winner will be 12 Years A Slave. With many citing this as the film Hollywood should have made years ago, I think it will sweep the board, winning most awards it’s nominated for. Gravity will dominate the technical categories, but I’ll bet my bottom dollar it gets the screenplay and editing awards. And if it gets director too, the award is sewn up.